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UPDATED ON 02 MARCH 2026
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Defence and oil stocks & Bunzl: Markets live

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© Investors’ Chronicle
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March 2
Defence shares jump on Iran conflict

Shares in defence companies jumped in early trading on Monday following the US and Israeli strikes in Iran and Saturday, which killed the country’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The Islamic Republic carried out missile and drone attacks on Israel in response, and on several neighbouring Gulf states where it targeted US bases but also hit civilian sites.

Shares in British Aerospace (BA.) jumped by 8 per cent and gun turret maker MS International (MSI) rose by 9 per cent. Chemring (CHG) and Qinetiq (QQ.) shares were both up by 4 per cent. A similar dynamic was underway in Europe, where shares in German defence companies Hensoldt (DE:HAG) rose by 8 per cent and Rheinmetall (DE:RHM) by 5 per cent.

Citi analyst Charles Armitage said investor focus was likely to be on companies involved in missile defence systems such as the European Sky Shield Initiative and on increased US military defence spending.

March 2
UK watchdog to investigate hotels for data sharing

The Competition and Markets Authority will investigate whether Hilton (US:HLT), InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG), and Marriott International (US:MAR) have breached competition rules for alleged data sharing, in a move that prompted share price declines of 5 to 8 per cent across the sector.

The regulator said the operators are suspected of sharing sensitive commercial information through a third-party data analytics platform called STR, owned by information services provider CoStar Group (US:CSGP).

STR collects industry data to provide insights into room occupancy levels and pricing trends, which hotel operators can then use to set their own room rates.

Sharing competitively sensitive information reduces the uncertainty that businesses have about how their rivals will act, the watchdog warned.

“This can affect how strongly companies compete because it makes it easier for them to predict what each other will do and coordinate their behaviour,” it said.

Should the companies be found in breach of competition rules, they could be fined up to 10 per cent of their global revenue.

Helios repeats CAB offer on deadline day

The major shareholder of CAB Payments (CABP) has put forward its $297mn (£221mn) cash takeover offer again on deadline day, reiterating the buyout plan to fit the Takeover Code’s put-up or shut-up rules.

Helios Investment Partners floated the FX and payment services business in 2023 and still holds a 45 per cent stake. 

The offer of $1.15 (86p) per share has not been raised since Helios revealed a second takeover approach on 2 February, which was rejected by the board of CAB Payments.

The board again rejected the offer on Monday: “The independent board believes that the offer is highly opportunistic and fundamentally undervalues CAB Payments and its future prospects.”

Helios has lined up 5.2-per-cent shareholder Eurocomm to support the buyout, as well as 2.4 per cent shareholder Bhairav Trivedi. 

Helios argued that CAB Payments “has not demonstrated sufficiently strong execution capability since IPO to defend and transform its business” amid growing competition in the company’s core markets and the market share threat from stablecoins and digital currencies.

The shares currently trade at 86p, compared to the 335p float price in 2023. CAB Payments will announce its 2025 results on Thursday.

Oxford Nanopore reins back expectations

Shares in Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT) fell 12 per cent after the gene sequencing specialist tempered its medium-term growth expectations.

That was despite reporting solid results against the background of a change in leadership: Francis Van Parys now takes over the chief executive role.

Revenue rose 22.2 per cent to £224mn, slightly ahead of guidance. Adjusted Ebitda losses narrowed to £86.7mn from £118mn, while gross margin improved by 110 basis points to 58.6 per cent. Cash reserves stood at £303mn.

However, the guidance for this year contained few clear catalysts. Management expects revenue growth of between 21 and 25 per cent at constant currency and gross margins of around 62 per cent. More notably, the company said 2027 growth would be “broadly similar” to 2026 levels, suggesting no rapid acceleration as it scales up.

GlobalData’s restructuring weighs on margins

GlobalData (DATA) posted 13 per cent revenue growth to £322mn last year, thanks to a series of acquisitions. However, a comprehensive restructuring programme weighed on the data analytics platform’s underlying sales and cash profits.

Organic growth came in at just 1 per cent, well below its medium-term target of high single-digit growth. Adjusted Ebitda fell 6 per cent to £110mn, while the corresponding margin was down 7 percentage points to 34 per cent.

Profits were hit by integration costs and heavy investments into technology and sales talent, but chief executive Mike Danson told Investors’ Chronicle the company was confident in returning to over 40 per cent Ebitda margins and mid single-digit organic growth this year.

GlobalData swung from a £10mn net cash position in 2024 to £114mn net debt, but free cash flow grew 5 per cent to £34mn.

The results came ahead of its main market move this week and news of a new chief financial officer. Robert Kingston is set to join the company in the third quarter, replacing Graham Lilley after eight years.

House prices steady in February

UK house prices rose 0.3 per cent in February to an average of £273,176, according to Nationwide, equivalent to a 1 per cent increase versus the prior year.

“This reinforces the view of a modest recovery after a dip at the end of 2025,” said chief economist Robert Gardner. “Activity is likely to recover in the coming quarters, especially if the improving affordability trend seen last year is maintained as expected.

Separately, UK mortgage approvals, a key indicator of demand, fell for the third month in a row in January, to 60,000. This is also 10 per cent lower than in January 2025.

Bunzl margins feel the squeeze

Bunzl (BNZL) posted 3 per cent revenue growth for 2025 driven by acquisitions, though organic growth and operating margins felt the squeeze of execution problems in North America and a sluggish demand in Europe.

Organic revenues were up by 0.4 per cent to £11.9bn, while adjusted operating profit fell 4.3 per cent to £910mn at constant exchange rates. The margin, meanwhile, fell from 8.3 per cent to 7.7 per cent, although the decline moderated in the second half.

The results met expectations set out in April, when the FTSE 100 distributor warned on profits largely due to the poorly executed rollout of its ‘own brand’ product offering for food service and grocery customers and over-centralising operations in the US, its largest market.

Management said actions to shore up performance in the region, including a leadership overhaul, contributed to better than expected new business wins in the second half. Continental Europe’s operating margin also stabilised over the final months thanks to a tighter rein on costs to offset inflation.

For 2026, the company reiterated guidance for “moderate” revenue growth at constant exchange rates, driven by “some” underlying revenue growth and a small benefit from acquisitions. The group operating margin is expected to be “slightly down” year on year.

March 2
Oil stocks climb as traders look for Iran war gains

Struggling Tullow Oil (TLW) was the surprise top pick of oil buyers on Monday morning following the US attacking Iran over the weekend. It was the top climber on the London market, with a gain of 18 per cent in early trading to 12.5p. The company’s shares have been in decline since 2024 as its debt pile has grown to look almost insurmountable.

The oil price topped $80 (£60) per barrel briefly as markets opened again after the weekend, after conflict between the US and Iran began again with missile strikes on Tehran.

Iran retaliated by hitting targets including Saudi oil infrastructure, Dubai airport, and US military bases in the region. Trade through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a trickle over Iranian threats. This also sent gas prices higher, given this is a major export route for liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Other London-listed energy shares to rise were Ithaca Energy (ITH) and Harbour Energy (HBR). Shell (SHEL) and BP (BP.) rose 3.6 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively. Production at Energean’s (ENOG) gas field facility on the maritime border of Israel and Lebonon has been suspended. Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) said it had suspended production at its Shaikan field in Iraqi Kurdistan. Its shares were down 6 per cent in response.

“While there is no physical blockade, the continued threat of attacks creates significant friction in the movement of tankers carrying oil, oil products and LNG from the Persian Gulf,” said Shore Capital analyst James Hosie.

“All oil producers outside the Middle East are set to benefit from an uplift in near-term revenues and cash flow.”

March 2
Hugh Moorhead
CEO change at Big Yellow

Self-storage giant Big Yellow Group (BYG) will have a new chief executive in July after Jim Gibson announced that he is to retire after 23 years at the helm.

Chief operating officer John Hunter will take the reins of the company. Hunter has been COO since 2024 and joined the board last year.

Private equity giant Blackstone (BX) was publicly exploring a bid for Big Yellow during the autumn of last year, but abandoned talks after being unable to agree on a price with management.

“Jim has, with the able assistance of the company’s senior management, been the critical force in putting the company into the market leading position it now holds,” said executive chair Nicholas Vetch, who co-founded Big Yellow with Gibson in 1998.

“Big Yellow has been part of my life for a very long time and, although I leave with some sadness, it is always important to plan for succession,” said Gibson.