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UPDATED ON 07 MAY 2026
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Shell and BAE Systems: Markets live

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May 7
²ú²âÌýAlex Hamer
Shell earnings soar from energy crisis 

Shell’s (SHEL) adjusted earnings more than doubled in the first quarter as its trading unit brought in windfall profits from the energy crisis caused by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

The quarter only covered a month of the conflict following the US’s attack on Iran, but this was enough to take adjusted earnings up to $6.9bn (£5.1bn), up from $3.3bn in the last quarter of 2025 and 7 per cent ahead of analyst forecasts. Shell announced a “rebalancing†of investor payouts alongside the results, trimming the quarterly buyback by $500mn to $3bn but raising the dividend by 5 per cent.

The company’s shares dropped 1.7 per cent on Thursday morning, alongside a broader negative reaction to energy stocks from more talk of a US-Iran peace deal. BP (BP.) fell 1.6 per cent and ExxonMobil (US:XOM) had a 4 per cent pre-market decline.

The Q1 earnings boost came largely from trading, with Shell’s operations impacted by the war, largely through Iran destroying parts of the Pearl liquefied natural gas facility in Qatar. The company has cut Q2 guidance for integrated gas because of the war, with oil and gas output expected at around 620,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), down from 909,000boe/d in the first quarter.

The chemicals and products division brought in adjusted earnings of $1.9bn, compared with a $100mn loss in the last quarter of 2025 and a $400mn profit a year ago. Management said alongside the “significantly higher trading and optimisation contributions†to the profit line, refining had also benefited from the difficult supply conditions. Upstream earnings were also up significantly, from $1.6bn to $2.4bn.

May 7
²ú²âÌýAlex Hamer
China buys another London lithium company 

A major Chinese battery player has lobbed a bid at Atlantic Lithium (ALL), which is developing a mine in Ghana.

The 18.8p per share offer values Atlantic at £155mn, a 27 per cent premium on Wednesday’s closing price.

Atlantic’s shares are up this year as it got a long-awaited permit for the Ewoyaa project, allowing construction and then actual production. 

The buyer is Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (CN:60379), known as Huayou, which already controls nickel mines in Indonesia and copper and lithium operations in the DR Congo and Zimbabwe, respectively.

The cash deal already has the backing of Atlantic’s 26-per-cent shareholder Assore, and directors representing 1.8 per cent of the issued shares. As the buyout will be done through a scheme of arrangement, the Huayou needs 75 per cent shareholder backing. 

Atlantic chief executive Keith Muller said the offer was attractive because of the “ongoing lithium price volatility, complex jurisdictional challenges and against the mining and execution risks attached to financing, developing and operating the Ewoyaa lithium project under the project’s current joint venture arrangementsâ€. A 2023 study put the project cost at $185mn (£136mn). 


The buyout would be the latest lithium company to come under Chinese control. Ganfeng bought out Bacanora Lithium in 2022 after investing in its Mexican lithium project while current Aim-lister Kodal Minerals (KOD) sold the controlling stake of its Bougouni mine in Mali to Hainan Mining. Ganfeng also bought the Goulamina mine in Mali from Australian company Leo Lithium last year.

May 7
²ú²âÌýAlex Hamer
Harbour Energy ups dividend on higher prices

Harbour Energy (HBR) has pushed up dividend and free cash flow guidance for the full year, on the back of the Middle East turmoil boosting oil and gas prices. The company also closed a $3.2bn (£2.35bn) purchase of LLOG for its US offshore assets in February, adding production just as prices were rising. 

Revenue for the first quarter was $3bn, up from $2.8bn the year before, and free cash flow was $700mn. The latter figure was the same as Q1 2025, but came despite a $200mn working capital build because of the higher oil and gas prices. 

Average prices were only slightly ahead of the year before, although Harbour said realised oil prices climbed significantly in April – the premium between oil futures and so-called Dated Brent, which applies to physical cargoes, went from $3 per barrel to $18 per barrel in April.

Free cash flow guidance (assuming $80 per barrel oil and $13 per mn cubic feet gas) is $1.4bn for the full year, up from $600mn. This has doubled the dividend guidance to $600mn for 2026 as well. The shares climbed just 1 per cent in morning trading, although fellow producers were largely down.

May 7
²ú²âÌýHelen Kirrane
Aberdeen to take over Herald after striking Saba deal

Herald Investment Trust (HRI) has come to an agreement with activist investor Saba Capital and Aberdeen Investments, putting an end to months of uncertainty over the future of the £1.4bn trust.

The deal would see the trust’s manager Katie Potts join Aberdeen together with seven other staff members and continue to run the trust with no changes to the current strategy, while Saba would exit its nearly 30 per cent stake via a tender offer. This would total 66 per cent of Herald’s issued share capital and allow Saba and other shareholders to exit at close to NAV.

Saba would also enter into a standstill agreement for three years, which would prevent it from voting on any resolutions proposed at any Herald general meetings, as well as requisitioning shareholders for meetings. It comes after Saba blocked Herald’s 100 per cent tender offer in February.

If the tender process is successful, Aberdeen will take over as Herald’s investment manager in the third quarter. Eight more trusts managed by Aberdeen will have the option to enter a similar standstill agreement with Saba, if their independent boards decide to do so.

May 7
²ú²âÌýValeria Martinez
Next 15 bets on a leaner business model

Next 15 (NFG) shares rose nearly 5 per cent this morning after the marketing and data consultancy group said it expects a return to organic growth in the second half of the 2027 financial year after an encouraging first quarter. 

This bullish take was enough to overpower negative full-year figures as the company continues its transformation. In the year to 31 January, like-for-like net revenue fell 4.3 per cent to £449mn, despite digital transformation growing 42 per cent and retail media 8 per cent. Weaker demand from technology clients and in creative production dragged things down.

Adjusted operating profit fell 8.6 per cent to £68mn, with the margin falling slightly to 15.1 per cent. On a statutory basis, the company reported a loss before tax of £13mn, compared with a £34mn profit the year before, due to costs tied to the closure of Mach49, and impairments. 

The management team has continued to simplify the business. The group reduced its number of brands from 22 to 11, after selling smaller entities such as Palladium and Beyond to focus on scale.

As a result, headcount fell 16 per cent to 3,992, removing £11mn of costs during the year and generating annualised savings of about £26mn. Net debt fell to £36mn, with leverage at just 0.4 times adjusted Ebitda, but the dividend was kept flat.

Find out why we’re bullish on Next 15

May 7
²ú²âÌýMichael Fahy
Rosebank makes headway with first big deal

Rosebank Industries (ROSE) said the first of its major acquisitions, ECI Industries, performed well in the first four months, with adjusted operating profit “up significantly year-on-year†and in line with expectations.

Rosebank bought ECI for $1.9bn (£1.4bn) from private equity firm Cerberus last year. It is also in the process of buying a pair of industrial businesses, MW Components and ASP CPM Holdings, for $3.05bn from another US private equity firm, American Securities. 

The CPM deal is due to complete next week, and MW Components “a few weeks thereafterâ€.

“While mindful of the geopolitical backdrop, we continue to focus on operational improvement plans, and look forward with confidence,†chief executive Simon Peckham said.

Rosebank’s shares, which moved from Aim to London’s main market last week, dropped by 1 per cent but are up 7 per cent so far this year.

Read more: An industrial specialist on track to repeat past glories

May 7
²ú²âÌýMichael Fahy
JD Sports plans to hand back more cash

JD Sports (JD.) reported its second year of declining profits in a row and warned that profit in the current year is likely to fall again.

Although chief executive Régis Schulz highlighted double-digit top-line annual top-line growth over the past three years, this has been acquisition-led and like-for-like sales remained weak. They declined 2.1 per cent in the 12 months to January and are down by a further 2.3 per cent in the first quarter of this year (although this is typically the retailer’s weakest quarter). Guidance for adjusted pre-tax profit for the year ranges from £750mn-£850mn, down from £852mn in the year just closed.

A 20 per cent increase in the full-year dividend and the launch of a new £200mn rolling buyback programme has helped to cushion the blow, though. It also plans to return more of the £1.4bn in free cash flow it expects to generate over the next three years to shareholders. This helped to lift the shares by 6 per cent.

Read more: Can JD Sports rekindle its past glories?

May 7
²ú²âÌýValeria Martinez
Johnson Service Group launches £55mn buyback

Shares in Johnson Service Group (JSG) rose 5 per cent after the textile rental group launched a £55mn share buyback and reaffirmed its margin guidance, despite war-based uncertainty and a slow start to the year for its hospitality arm.

Group revenue rose 1.4 per cent to £123mn in the first quarter, or by 0.7 per cent on an organic basis. Organic growth within the workwear division rose 3.9 per cent, while organic sales fell 0.6 per cent in its hotel, restaurant and catering unit.

The company said price increases and contract renewals remained “challengingâ€, with some churn continuing, particularly among independent hotels and restaurants. In the meantime, JSG said it had proactively managed cost inflation pressures, including higher energy prices. Around 85 per cent of its electricity use is fixed for 2026, along with most of its gas and about 70 per cent of diesel. For 2027, it has fixed roughly 60 per cent of electricity and 70 per cent of gas, with further hedging planned.

Management said it had yet to see any “material impact†from the Middle East conflict and expected any cost effects in 2026 to be manageable. As a result, it still anticipated meeting its adjusted operating margin target of at least 14 per cent this year.

May 7
²ú²âÌýValeria Martinez
S4 Capital’s net revenue slide continues

Despite some optimistic growth in late 2025, the start of this year has been difficult for Martin Sorrell’s digital advertising group. S4 Capital (SFOR) reported a 5 per cent fall in like-for-like net revenue for the first quarter to £149mn.

The firm said the uncertainty caused by the conflict in the Middle East had made clients more cautious, as its predominantly tech-focused clients continued to shift spending towards building AI infrastructure and away from marketing. 

Management said like-for-like net revenue guidance for 2026 remained in line with current analyst consensus, slightly below 2025, with operational Ebitda margins expected to increase by at least 1 percentage point thanks to cost savings. 

Net debt at the end of the quarter stood at £118mn, down from £145mn last year, taking leverage to 1.4 times pro-forma operational Ebitda. The aim is to end the financial year within a net debt range of between £60mn and £90mn.

If performance and liquidity targets are hit, the board plans to approve an interim dividend of 1.1p and recommend a final dividend of 1.1p. The shares fell 11 per cent to 37p, but remain up 81 per cent year to date.

Read more: Does S4 Capital need rescuing – or has it hit rock bottom?

May 7
²ú²âÌýMichael Fahy
BAE Systems’ orders continue to flow

BAE Systems (BA.) reported a “strong start†to 2026, adding that it was well-positioned to capitalise on long-term increases in defence spending by governments.

The defence company listed £4.5bn of new orders in the first four months of the year, an increase from £2bn over the same period last year. It also maintained full-year guidance of sales growth of 7-9 per cent, underlying earnings per share growth of 9-11 per cent and free cash flow of at least £1.3bn for 2026.

The shares fell by 4 per cent in early trading, perhaps reacting to peace talks between the US and Iran, but still trade at a price/earnings ratio of 24, which is well above their five-year average of 18, according to FactSet.

Its major European peer Rheinmetall (DE:RHM), also saw its shares slide by 3 per cent after it delivered a first quarter operating profit of €224mn, which was 14 per cent below consensus forecasts. Jefferies analyst Chloe Lemarie said the miss was due to a timing issue in revenue recognition in Rheinmetall’s weapons and ammunition business, which should recover in the second quarter.